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When was the last time that Warner Bros had a hefty trifecta at the Christmas box office?
No Oompa Loompa is set to jinx the David Zaslav-run Warner Bros Discovery over the holidays for by Christmas week, it’s conceivable that the studio will own the top three movies at the box office between DC’s Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, The Oprah Winfrey-Steven Spielberg produced feature musical The Color Purple, and Wonka, the latter which fires up this weekend in U.S. and Canada.
Outlook for the Timothée Chalamet starring musical is over/under $40M stateside at 4,150 theaters, with an additional $35M abroad inclusive of new markets which include France, Belgium, Holland, Australia, NZ, Italy, Denmark, Sweden and Poland. All in that’s $75M worldwide for this weekend. By Sunday, the Paul King directed, David Heyman produced musical will have a global running total well north of $120M for this $125M production. By this Friday, all markets sans Korea will be in release, that territory going in January. Already, Wonka has $43.2M in the till from last weekend’s overseas opening.
Stateside, Wonka will have premium ticket upcharge formats Imax, PLF, Dolby Cinemas, and 4DX.
In recent years, studios will go early with a family title to get ahead of the mega Christmas tentpole, i.e. on Dec. 13, 2019, Sony opened Jumanji: The Next Level to $59.2M (ahead of Disney’s Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker) which did a crazy 5.4 multiple for a final domestic of $320.3M. There are more conservative estimates out there for Wonka in the $30M range, and should the film land in that vicinity, it’s not bad business. Moviegoing explodes on Christmas night and into the New Year as holiday distractions fall to the wayside.
Wonka previews begin tomorrow at 3PM in 3,400 locations.
Paramount Pictures released the original 1971 classic Gene Wilder Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory based on the Roald Dahl 1964 novel Charlie and the Chocolate Factory. Warner Bros. remade that in 2005 with Tim Burton directing, Johnny Depp starring as Wonka. Charlie and the Chocolate Factory opened to $56.1M stateside, and finaled at $206.4M domestic, $475M WW.
In regards to the outlook for Warners: On Dec. 22, they’re opening the DC James Wan directed Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom to $50M-$60M for the four day with Christmas on Monday. The Color Purple arrives on Christmas Day with an estimate of $8M for the day alone, which many consider very good. We’re hearing excellent presales on the feature take of the Broadway musical, which is based on the Alice Walker novel and Spielberg’s 1985 movie. The last great holiday musical sleeper, The Greatest Showman, which opened before Christmas on Dec. 20 in 2018, posted a seven day take through Dec. 26 of $24.1M. The movie finaled at $174.3M.
Elsewhere, expect GKIDS and Studio Ghibli’s The Boy and the Heron to hold with around 45% to 50% in weekend 2 with around $6M-$7M in weekend two. That’s a great weekend two ease next to the frontloaded nature of Crunchyroll anime movies, i.e. 2018’s Dragon Ball Super: Broly fell 69% in its second frame, while 2022’s Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero plummeted -78%. The Hayao Miyazaki directed animated movie has had solid weekdays with a Monday of $1.2M and Tuesday of $1.46M with a current running total through five days of $15.67M.