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The very expensive, but typically priced, Dwayne Johnson $200M+ Christmas package Red One began its weekend journey last night with previews totaling $3.7M. Note that figure also includes monies from a Sunday special screening. The movie has been sitting still on tracking for quite some time with a $30M-$35M projection.
At that level — $30M-$35M– that would be the biggest opening ever posted for a feature production from a streamer, besting Apple Original Film’s Killers of the Flower Moon ($23.2M) and not counting Amazon’s release of newly acquired MGM’s Creed III ($58.3M).
In regards to preview comps, Red One is above Elemental ($2.4M previews, $29.6M opening), If ($1.75M previews, 3-day $33.7M) and The Wild Robot ($1.95M, 3-day $35.7M). Note, when it comes to non-IP movies opening between $30M-$40M, there’s only been four post-Covid: Bullet Train ($30M), M3GAN ($30.4M), The Lost City ($30.4M) and IF ($33.7M). In regards to non-IP movies debuting to $40M-$50M post-Covid, there was just Jordan Peele’s Nope ($44.3M).
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There’s a lot to unpack here this weekend as this movie, which was greenlit by Amazon MGM Studios Head Jennifer Salke, and shepherded by Head of Film Production, and Development, Julie Rapaport, is only expected to post $35M in its opening stateside, give or take. Hopefully, the movie can overperform given that there hasn’t been a big production in the marketplace since Oct. 25 when Venom: The Last Dance opened to $51M.
For a traditional major motion picture studio, Red One, with its expected domestic opening is a black eye. Read, the $23.4 billion Warner Bros Discovery has to endure a $100M loss on the near $200M priced + PA Joker: Folie a Deux which fell on its face with $206.3M worldwide. But for the $2.1 trillion Amazon, the cost of Red One is a rounding error. Amazon MGM Studios defends that monetization of Red One will be fully realized down the road in how it triggers other parts of the shopping conglom’s business and the Prime service as well. That’s a hard pill for traditional motion picture studios, even those with streaming services to swallow. But alas, all those box office blunders from Apple with their $200M production, has that tech company re-thinking its movie strategy. More on everything later. The hope for Amazon on this Christmas movie is that it will last for generations to come on the service as it continues to build its library. Candy Cane Lane was already watchable for Prime, and these titles, ala Netflix’s Christmas Chronicles, pop back up in menus each holiday season.
Reviews are awful at 34% Rotten on Seven Bucks Production movie about Santa Clause’s (JK Simmons) kidnapping, and rescue by his head of security (Johnson) who gets help from an underground dark web hacker (Evans). Kiernan Shipka and Lucy Liu also co-star in this reteam between Johnson and Jumanji director Jake Kasdan. Bad reviews are par for the course on a Johnson movie which historically looks to please masses over critics, i.e. recent RT scores on Johnson fare includes Rampage (51%), San Andreas (48%) and Black Adam (39%). Johnson has proven stronger in his CinemaScores, i.e. San Andreas and Rampage both received A-s, Black Adam a B+.
Red One, of course, has the full command of all Imax and PLF screens.
Already, Red One, via Amazon MGM Studios international output deal with Warner Bros, has made $36M to date in 75 offshore territories. That’s not amazing. But keep in mind, Christmas isn’t celebrated everywhere in the world.