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Amazon MGM Studios‘ big $200M Dwayne Johnson and Chris Evans Santa Claus caper movie, Red One, landed on tracking recently and it’s eyeing a $36M opening in U.S./Canada with a chance for upside. The Jake Kasdan directed reteam with Johnson post their Jumanji movies opens on Nov. 15.
Red One was originally green lit for streaming, however, Amazon MGM Studios pivoted to theatrical after the movie tested well. Essentially when it comes to an Amazon MGM Studios deciding to go theatrical on a movie that was originally conceived for streaming, it boils down to whether the studio can cover their domestic P&A costs at the box office. Hence, there’s that confidence with Red One. Warner Bros. has overseas on the Seven Bucks production reteam per their offshore deal with Amazon MGM Studios.
Positive signs are that Red One is not just trending with guys, but Johnson’s female followers as well. In unaided awareness, the category by which moviegoers cite a title in a poll without being prompted, Red One is best with teen boys. First choice is with teen boys followed by older females and males. With Red One hot among young males, it has a path through a very crowded Thanksgiving field with women going to both Moana 2 and Wicked, and heavy older males heading to Gladiator II.
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In regard to unaided awareness with teens with Red One, comps are Shazam! ($53.5M), Uncharted ($44M) and IF ($33.7M). However, keep in mind that for non-IP movies opening between $30M-$40M, there’s only been four post Covid: Bullet Train ($30M), M#GAN ($30.4M), The Lost City ($30.4M) and IF ($33.7M). In regards to non-IP movies opening to $40M-$50M post Covid, there was just Jordan Peele’s Nope ($44.3M).
Red One is the first Christmas major studio big budget theatrical release since Illumination/Universal’s The Grinch in 2018 which opened to $67.5M and legged out to a 4x final domestic multiple of $272.2M.
Johnson’s biggest solo non-Fast & Furious and franchise domestic opening belongs to 2022’s Black Adam ($67M), while Evans’ biggest non-MCU/non-Pixar opening at the box office is Knives Out ($26.7M).