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Apple Original Films‘ third movie to go wide in theaters, the $200M Matthew Vaughn directed Argylle, hits cinemas this weekend via a distribution deal with Universal and a mid-teens start is expected.
As the old saying goes in distribution, ‘It would be nice if it had a 2 in front of it,’ meaning a $20M+ start.
Some exhibitors are bullish that the all-star movie with Henry Cavill, John Cena, Bryce Dallas Howard, Dua Lipa, Ariana DeBose, Bryan Cranston, Sam Rockwell, Samuel L. Jackson and more could reach that threshold, however, we’re in a truly downer box office atmosphere until Legendary/Warner Bros.’ Dune: Part Two shows up.
A 50/50 male-female turnout expected with slightly older women at 3,500 theaters stateside with all the Imax and PLF screen guns a blazing. Argylle will also open in 79 offshore territories including UK & Ireland, Australia, France, Germany and Mexico. It’s the first movie of studio tentpole product leading into a Valentine’s Day-President Day spread on Feb. 14 where Paramount’s One Love: Bob Marley and Sony/Marvel’s Madame Web are expected to give some speed to turnstiles.
Previews in U.S./Canada start for the PG-13 rated Argylle on Thursday at 5PM. I’m told that comps are the Paramount Sandra Bullock/Channing Tatum romantic comedy Lost City ($30.4M) as well as the first two Vaughn Kingsman movies ($36.2M and $39M), but gosh, those numbers will be too high to reach. Somehow, Argylle feels like 2022’s The 355 which starred Jessica Chastain, Lupita Nyong’o, Penelope Cruz, etc, a $75M title that Uni took domestic on for $20M. However, the good news is that pre-release diagnostics on Argylle show that the feature is good enough to hook moviegoers than 355 which opened to $4.6M during Omnicron Covid days and legged out to $14.5M domestic.