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EXCLUSIVE: Heading into the Swift snowfall this weekend at the box office, here’s what we can tell you about the AMC-distributed film. As has already been reported, a $100M+ projection per distribution sources is in store and another $50M+ overseas (for $150M WW debut); but part of the stats indicating this come from box office analytics firm EntTelligence which is observing sellouts for Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour significantly outstripping Barbie and percent-wise that of Spider-Man: No Way Home compared to each movie’s first evenings.
Another big indicator of big business: 99% of the presales activity for the entire weekend is for Eras Tour.
Also, with young female skewing movies known to be frontloaded in their preview/opening days at the box office, EntTelligence says, “There is a very even disbursement of sales over the three days.”
EntTelligence defines sellouts as showtimes having capacities of 75% or greater since handicapped and front rows do not necessarily draw attendance. Now, Eras Tour won’t be having Thursday previews because Swift wants the film launching on her lucky day of Friday the 13th, so the first shows are at 6PM that night.
RELATED: ‘Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour’ Concert Movie Sets World Premiere Event In Los Angeles
As of yesterday, there were over 4,200 showtimes “sold out” per EntTelligence out of 13,000 showtimes or 32% which is massive for the first evening of a tentpole at the B.O. Do you know how many showtimes were “sold out” on Barbie‘s first night of previews? 500 (Barbie‘s opening weekend was $162M off a first day/previews of $70.5M). Spider-Man: No Way Home (which had an opening of $260.1M off a Friday/previews of $121.9M) only had 18% of its Thursday night showtimes sold out. All sellouts here are compared four days before each film’s first night. One of every three showtimes is sold out for Eras Concert on opening day.
EntTelligence is currently monitoring over 11.5M seats via 65k showtimes for Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour. No one is expecting Eras Tour to open stateside on par with Barbie and Spider-Man: No Way Home by the way given that Eras Tour has 65K showtimes available in its run-up to Friday, versus 105K showtimes for No Way Home before its Friday opening, and 63K showtimes for Barbie.
RELATED: ‘Taylor Swift: Eras Tour’ Concert Movie Getting Global Theatrical Release
Though the pic is being released by AMC, with booking by Gotham-based distributor Variance, the movie is playing all circuits in the U.S. down to the Greenfield Garden Cinemas in Greenfield, Mass and the Latchis Theatre in Brattleboro, VT. The concert movie will only play on weekends for at least four frames in a row, and not weekdays.
Over the entire weekend, 6,800 showtimes have capacities north of 75%.
Current top-selling cities for Eras Tour concert film are New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Boston and Philadelphia.
RELATED: ‘Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour’ Hits Tracking With $100M-$125M Opening Weekend Projection
While Swift originally had movie tickets priced at $19.89 and $13.13, the first number reflecting the year she was born and the latter her lucky number, EntTelligence shows that the actual market average for movie tickets stand at $20.82 for general admission (that includes large format), $14.16 for a child’s ticket, and $14.42 for a senior citizen ticket.
Heading into the weekend, EntTelligence also shows that Saturday admissions for Eras Tour are spread out as follows: 19% attending before 1PM, 33% between 1PM and 5PM, 37% between 5PM and 8PM, and 11% after 8PM.
AMC has not reported the theater count yet stateside or internationally on Eras Tour.
AMC reported last week that Eras Tour crossed $100M in global advance ticket sales.