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As if the great Moana 2 box office news wasn’t enough Wednesday morning, Disney‘s Barry Jenkins- directed Lion King prequel Mufasa and Paramount‘s Sonic the Hedgehog 3 has hit three-week tracking.
Currently, the Hedgehog is looking to outrun the Lion, $55 million+ to $50 million, but keep in mind Disney hasn’t screamed out its Mufasa campaign yet. That happens on December 2, even though trailers will be in front of a ton of family eyeballs this week on Moana 2. Mufasa also has had three trailers out, and a teaser for tickets on sale, versus Sonic‘s two.
Right now, Sonic the Hedgehog 3 is besting Mufasa in first choice, 11 to 7 for general audiences. Sonic 3 had a big second-trailer drop on Monday that trended all day. Mufasa is ahead of Sonic 3, 50 to 47, in interest.
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The appeal that Sonic 3 has is in its third go-round is the fan-fave casting of Keanu Reeves as Shadow, not to mention double Jim Carreys in the roles of villain Robotnik and his grandfather. Ben Schwartz and Idris Elba are also returning as Sonic and Knuckles in the popular feature take of the Sega video game.
Note, it doesn’t matter who wins, just another great moment of all boats rising over the Christmas box office after what is expected to be a record Thanksgiving stretch, besting 2018’s $315.6M five-day total. In the end, it’s about that Christmas multiple, which can be as high as 5x-5.5x for family titles opening before the holiday. Even though the estimate for Sonic 3 is below its previous installments Sonic the Hedgehog ($58M) and Sonic the Hedgehog 2 ($72.1M), tracking is hot on this threequel. Audiences don’t really head out to the movies until Christmas Day, which falls on a Wednesday this year. Interest among teen girls is equal to teen boys with 17-34 at a high 16% unaided and 51% definite interest. The threequel is big with moms and both girls and boys.
While these openings aren’t at the level of a Star Wars, Avatar or Spider-Man: No Way Home, they’re better than last Christmas’ openings of Wonka ($39M) and Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom ($27.6M). You’d never think that last year’s Christmas week would do well at the box office but it did, grossing $280M per Box Office Mojo. That was ahead of 2022’s Christmas week that had Avatar: The Way of Water, with that frame doing $246.4M. Last year was also only 4% off from Christmas week 2021 led by Spider-Man: No Way Home.