Box Office Preview: ‘Venom: The Last Dance’ Eyes $65M Domestic Launch

Venom: The Last Dance hopes to liven up the October box office this weekend with a domestic debut of $65 million and $100 million overseas, even though it’s looking like the threequel’s North American launch may be the lowest of Sony’s prized antihero franchise.

The first Venom opened to $80.2 million in 2018, then a record for October. It lost the crown a year later to Joker ($96.2 million). The second installment, Venom: Let There Be Carnage, debuted in October 2021 to $90 million, a boon for theater owners who were still recovering from the pandemic and a major win for Sony.

Venom: The Last Dance should have no trouble nabbing the biggest opening of October 2024 to date after Joker: Foile à Deux flamed out with a $37 million debut following the sequel’s unprecedented D CinemaScore.

In the case of Venom, it’s not uncommon for threequels to fall off. Sony is confident, however, that fanboys will find the third outing to be the best of the bunch and help fuel better-than-expected ticket sales. Venom 3 reviews arrive at noon Wednesdsay. The pic’s reported budget is $120 million before marketing.

On Wednesday, Venom 3 opened in its first raft of foreign markets and pulled in a better-than-hoped-for $9.3 million in China, the biggest opening day for a comic book movie since fellow Sony title Spider-Man: Far From Home. This prompted Sony to up its foreign opening forecast to $100 million, versus $85 million.

Directed by Kelly Marcel, Venom 3 stars Tom Hardy, who returns in the titular role. Hardy also co-wrote the script with Marcel, his longtime creative partner who makes her directorial debut with the feature.

The other new nationwide film this weekend is Edward Berger’s acclaimed Oscar contender Conclave, a Vatican-set thriller about the election of a new pope. Produced and financed by FilmNation and Indian Paintbrush, the movie’s all-star cast includes Ralph Fiennes, Stanley Tucci, John Lithgow and Isabella Rossellini.

Focus Features, which acquired domestic rights in exchange for a distribution fee, opens Conclave in 1,742 cinemas. The adult-targeted specialty film, costing just under $20 million to produce, is pacing to open to $4 million to $6 million and then play throughout awards season. (It sports a 95 percent fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes.)