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On the edge of what is bound to be the domestic box office’s third $200M+ weekend thanks to Barbie and Oppenheimer, the motion picture industry’s fret is whether the great post-pandemic moviegoing rebound is about to screech to a halt due to the SAG-AFTRA strike and actors prohibited from promoting.
Barbie and Oppenheimer are expected to gross a combined $150M this weekend, with many moviegoers planning double features. All of this momentum has been built on the backs of each pic’s casts’ globe-trotting press tours.
Currently, the 2023 domestic box office through July 16 at $5 billion is surging 13% ahead of last year which ended at $7.4 billion. Is a great thing about to go very wrong?
Studios’ marketing and distribution brass remain vigilant as to whether they’ll start moving titles, assessing the calendar weekly. Continually, we’re told that the SAG-AFTRA strike is bound to impact the latter part of 2024 versus 2023. Should the SAG-AFTRA strike last more than four-to-six weeks, it could wipe out Q4 productions which are in need of reshoots, and more.
However, don’t think that 2023 will escape harm.
In regards to the rest of the summer, the theatrical release schedule is locked with long-lead campaigns having already commenced. Studio execs say that a movie’s box office potential has more to do with its TV spot, in-theater and online trailer spend, then say an interview or a red carpet appearance by Robert Downey Jr.
Media spend is what motivates moviegoers to go: Already the cutesy social media memes and hysterical trailers of Ryan Gosling’s Ken singing are fueling Warner Bros’ Barbie to a $100M+ start. Last August was left barren at the box office as movies were delayed due to the post-production logjam from Covid. However, this August is back to a pre-pandemic normalcy, and poised to be richer. Already, the box office projections for August’s lineup look largely solid — and that’s without any stars on brassy red carpets, i.e. Disney’s The Haunted Mansion on July 28 is spotting a $30M+ start; Warner Bros.’ Jason Statham sequel, The Meg 2 ($28M+) and Paramount’s Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles ($40M+ 5-day) on the weekend of Aug. 4; as well as Sony’s Gran Turismo ($25M+) on Aug. 11. The rest of the summer lineup includes Universal’s R-rated doggie comedy Strays, and Warner/DC’s Blue Beetle on Aug. 18, a wide expansion of Lionsgate’s Whitebird on Aug. 25 (after limited bow on Aug. 18), and Sony’s Equalizer 3 on Sept. 1.
In several cases, the studios have gotten ahead of the strike, and have taped electronic kits, social media/in-theater plugs and bagged press with big stars, read Denzel Washington did some press which is embargoed out of CinemaCon on Equalizer 3. It’s also prompted the studios to get really creative in raising the profiles of their movies and hitting their core audiences head-on: Sony first let the world know about Neil Blomkamp’s Gran Turismo, inspired by the SonyPlaystation game, by taking the pic’s stars David Harbour and Orlando Bloom to a Cannes Film Festival photocall and a press tour at the Monaco Grand Prix. The studio is also tubthumping the action movie by inviting gaming and racing enthusiasts to a real-life Gran Turismo Racing Academy in Barcelona, Spain.
Any type of franchise film per sources should have no problem launching at the Q3 and Q4 box office, i.e. The Nun 2, The Exorcist: The Believer, The Marvels, Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes, even Sony/Marvel’s Kraven the Hunter.
When it comes to a tentpole that didn’t have much press support from its cast, and ultimately died at the box office as a result of that, many see this summer’s The Flash as a prime example. A bulk of The Flash cast avoided interviews as they didn’t want to be on the hook for fielding questions about the Warner Bros DC pic’s tabloid-headlined star, Ezra Miller. Furthermore, due to the WGA-Strike, late night shows –largely safe havens that avoid touchy questions for stars– weren’t at the cast’s disposal. However, distribution sources say that Flash‘s failure went beyond the cast’s unavailability: There was a stink on the film ahead of release, with the pic landing a B CinemaScore. That prompt bad worth of mouth plummeted Flash’s domestic opening grosses from a projected $70M to $55M. The pic has fizzled with a current $106.9M domestic, $160.5M WW.
At this minute, several distributors are swearing to God that they’re not moving any titles. However, sources say that awards season bait, which is greatly in need of its stars propping, remain the most sensitive at this year’s box office.
Should the SAG-AFTRA strike last longer than four weeks, it could cast clouds on such movies as the Emma Stone absurdist fantasy Poor Things (Sept. 8), the Matt Damon-Pedro Pascal-Margaret Qualley road movie Drive Away Dolls (Sept. 22), and Paul Giamatti’s The Holdovers (Oct. 27) among several others. Luca Guadagnino’s Zendaya starring R-rated tennis champ romance, Challengers, which is booked to make its world premiere splash on Venice’s opening day, was depending on that heat to fuel its U.S./Canada wide release on Sept 15.
Should these titles see release date changes, it would not be shocking.
Poor Things has also been buzzed to premiere at Venice, and could be in a similar situation as Challengers: a global platform without the visuals and noise of its stars.
Currently, I hear that Apple Original Film/ Paramount’s Killers of the Flower Moon will stick to its platform runway beginning on Oct. 6: Leonardo DiCaprio traditionally does a limited amount of press and director Martin Scorsese is available to talk up the film given that the DGA has inked a new contract with the AMPTP.
While distributors are confident in launching tentpoles without star support during the SAG-AFTRA strike, the question is whether directors are comfortable with that.
After seeing his sci-fi spectacle Dune get hampered by a theatrical day-and-date release on HBO Max during the pandemic, will Denis Villeneuve want the support of his glitzy young cast Zendaya, Timothee Chalamet, Austin Butler, Florence Pugh by his side on a global press tour so that he can blast off Dune: Part Two and make it the blockbuster that it’s destined to be on Nov. 3? The first movie was embraced by moviegoers with an A- CinemaScore and was one of the highest grossing films during Covid 2021, despite also airing on HBO Max, with a $108.3M domestic, $402M WW result and six Oscar wins. At the end of the day, it’s up to Legendary, not Warner Bros., on whether Dune: Part Two shifts.
If the actors’ strike is going really deep into the fall, how does it impact any Q4 releases which might require last-minute voiceover or pick-ups from actors? Those big movies which exhibition is relying on at Christmas time are Warner Bros.’ Wonka (Dec 15), Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom (Dec. 20), and The Color Purple (Christmas Day) and Sony’s Ghostbusters sequel (Dec. 22); the latter which just wrapped in London before the actors officially picketed.
As one executive points out, “the day after the SAG-AFTRA strike is over, everything from recording studios to film crews will go into extreme demand. Another post-production bottleneck could occur.”
Awards season strategists have told us that if SAG-AFTRA and AMPTP come to peace with a new contract in four weeks, then a star-studded film festival season is in store. Aside from the fall film festivals booking a bulk of foreign fare, hope resides in non-AMPTP independent productions which land waivers, and have stars. Those actors could possibly show up in TIFF, Venice and Telluride.
Says one hopeful awards season publicity vet, “All it takes is one big star to show up at a festival from one of these independent films to make others feel comfortable and commit.”