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It’s less than five weeks until the first big opening of 2025, that being Disney/Marvel Studios‘ Captain America: Brave New World, which hit tracking service Quorum and is expected to do $86M to $95M over the 3-day of the 4-day Valentine’s Day/Presidents Day weekend on Feb. 14. The Friday through Monday figure is also bound to be $100M+ at this point in time.
That projection takes into account the change-up in cast in the Captain America franchise, and the overall reset of the franchise. The next installment is a grounded title ala 2014’s Captain America: Winter Soldier which opened to $95M over 3-days on April 4-6.
On Quorum, Captain America: Brave New World has the most awareness of movies opening in the next month at 58 higher than Universal’s Wolf Man (44, opening Jan. 17), Lionsgate’s Flight Risk (37, Jan. 24) and StudioCanal/Sony’s Paddington in Peru (36) which is also opening over the Presidents Day stretch. Captain America: Brave New World is strongest with men, of course, with women under 35 not that far behind men over 35 in awareness.
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In regards to those who would pay to see Captain America: Brave New World versus stream at home, that number is very high next to the incoming lineup of titles at 67 versus Wolf Man (57), Flight Risk (57), New Line’s horror movie Companion (37) and Paddington in Peru (45).
The Julius Onah directed and co-written movie takes place after the events of the Marvel Studios’/Disney+ series, The Falcon and the Winter Solider when Sam Wilson picks up the shield left behind by Steve Rogers. That series was a big success on the streamer, unlike Ms. Marvel, and the hope is that the fan love from that will carry over into the opening weekend on Brave New World.
Among 4-day opening records for Presidents Day weekend, Marvel Studios owns the top three with 2018’s Black Panther ($242.1M), Deadpool ($152.1M) and Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania ($120.3M). Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania posted a 3-day of $106.1M, Deadpool‘s was $132.4M, while Black Panther‘s was $202M.
Quorum correctly projected six weeks out that Disney/Marvel Studios’ Deadpool & Wolverine would notch a $200M+ opening weekend while rival tracking services were more conservative.