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The headlines were grim. Slapped with poor reviews and a B- CinemaScore from audiences, Robert Zemeckis’ new movie Here opened to just $4.8 million from 2,642 North American theaters over the Nov. 1-3 weekend despite the intriguing chance to see the veteran director reunite with stars Tom Hanks and Robin Wright for the first time since their seminal, Oscar-winning film Forrest Gump three decades ago.
Every major studio passed on making Here when Miramax shopped the generational-metaphysical drama. Miramax sold off foreign rights and was able to secure a distribution deal with Sony’s Tri-Star, which has no money in the $45 million pic.
There’s simply too much competition in terms of fall films targeting older consumers. But that demo isn’t exactly made up of frequent moviegoers. Rather, older generations have grown accustomed to watching new releases at home relatively quickly after they open in cinemas, thanks to shortened windows and the rise of streamers in the post-pandemic era. So when these audiences do decide to show up, they pay close attention to what critics are saying. (More than 45 percent of the audience for both Conclave and Here were 55 and older, an unheard of stat.)
Case-in-point, Edward Berger and Focus Features’ awards contender Conclave is among the few adult dramas that is working on a nationwide basis. Graced with stellar reviews and a B+ CinemaScore, it opened to $6.6 million the weekend before Here, the best showing amid a crop of fall film festival entries that have fallen off quickly at the box office, including Jason Reitman and Sony’s SNL love letter Saturday Night and anti-Donald Trump doc The Apprentice. And then there was Francis Ford Coppola’s mega-bomb Megalopolis, which has earned $13 million globally against a $120 million budget. Conclave even beat Here in its second weekend, dropping a scant 20 percent to $5.3 million from 1,796 cinemas.
“There has indeed been a stark auteur-driven movie malaise of late as a string of films from some of the most notable and iconic film directors have met with audience indifference in this very challenging marketplace environment,” says Comscore’s Paul Dergarabedian.
The box office analyst adds, “Titles like Megalopolis and Here, for whom the target audience is the mature moviegoer, have struggled to inspire the requisite ‘want to see’ factor that turns awareness into actual moviegoing, and the box office has suffered under this stark reality.”
Here could learn a lesson or two from Clint Eastwood’s Juror #2.
Looking at the landscape when it comes to adult dramas, Warner Bros. Discovery took a different tact and decided from the outset to make the courtroom thriller for Max with Eastwood’s blessing.
The movie also opened over the Nov. 1-3 weekend opposite Here in a smattering of U.S. cities after being selected as the closing night for the AFI Film Fest, but anyone who is curious about how it did won’t be able to find out, since it was only an awards qualifying run and no grosses were reported. Insiders say it played in roughly 35 theaters. The pic was screened for some reviewers, and sports a stellar 91 percent fresh critics’ score on Rotten Tomatoes, prompting box office bloggers to predict that Warners will surely change its mind and give the movie a true theatrical run.
According to several sources who spoke with The Hollywood Reporter, that isn’t in the cards. The plan remains to send the film, starring Nicholas Hoult, Toni Collette, J.K. Simmons and Paul Bettany, to Max over the Christmas holidays (the streamer has not announced an exact date).
The film’s budget is reportedly less than $35 million; a nationwide theatrical release would tack on tens of millions in marketing costs.
Theatrical versus streaming is a touchy subject for WBD in the aftermath of “Project Popcorn,” which was orchestrated by the prior regime of Jason Kilar and gave all 2021 films a dual day-and-date release in cinemas and on Max in a surprise move that enraged talent and cinemas.
But growing the subscriber base is a top goal for WBD Chief David Zaslav — as it is for his rivals who have streaming services — and a Clint Eastwood movie could be a tantalizing stocking stuffer, much as Salem’s Lot was. And giving the film an awards qualifying run likely makes Eastwood happy (the prolific Eastwood is a beloved figure on the Warners lot). There’s never been an official announcement regarding Juror #2 being the first of his movies to be made for Max, versus theatrical.
Warners is releasing Juror #2 theatrically in eight overseas markets where Eastwood is a beloved director, including in France (it’s already earned $5 million from six markets). While he’s admired in the U.S. as a director, his more recent films have fared better when he is also the star, although his last film, 2021’s Cry Macho, topped out at less than $17 million worldwide. 2019’s Richard Jewell, which he only directed, was also a major disappointment, grossing $44 million globally. Ditto for 2018’s The 15:17 to Paris. (Of the three, he only starred in the first.)
Before that, he had a streak of notable wins, including, to name just a few, The Mule, American Sniper, Gran Torino — all of which he starred in — and Sully, starring Hanks.
By avoiding a theatrical release, Eastwood and Warners can avoid any bad press Zemeckis and Hanks are having to endure over Here should Juror #2 have disappointed.
But not everyone is convinced that the verdict is final regarding Juror #2‘s fate.
“A film like Juror #2 will ultimately find success due to the universal outpouring of critical raves bestowed on the latest and potentially the final film from the legendary and iconic Clint Eastwood and in this rather slow pre- and post-election theatrical marketplace could build an audience and box office beyond just an Academy run in theaters,” says Dergarabedian. “That being said, Juror #2 will undoubtedly be a strong draw on Max offering discerning film fans the chance to see a great adult drama from the comfort of their living rooms. There’s no question from a creative point of view the big screen will remain the best place to see such a film, but ultimately it must make strategic and financial sense. It isn’t an easy calculus to make.”