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EXCLUSIVE: Currently we hear that Sony/Marvel’s Venom: The Last Dance is eyeing around $8M in previews tonight, maybe more by the morning. Showtimes began at 2PM in U.S. Canada at 3,500 locations.
At that figure, there’s a path to a $65M opening, which we mentioned would rep the lowest start for the trilogy stateside after owning the third (2021’s Venom: Let There Be Carnage at $90M) and fourth best (2018’s Venom) openings for October. Yes, we expect more from superhero threequels, but this is Venom and the franchise always reaped significantly more abroad (anywhere from 60% to 75%) than domestic. Hence, the global number means more to the studio to make good on that $120M production cost before marketing spend.
Comps: 2022’s Black Adam saw $7.6M in previews before making $26.6M on its Friday and $67M for the weekend. There’s another similar comp in 2023’s Fast X which had a $7.5M Thursday night, $28M Friday and $67M opening.
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Recently Warner Bros’ Joker: Folie a Deux posted $7M previews before falling apart to a $37.6M opening — however that movie was sold under false pretenses to the fanboys, hence the D CinemaScore because they weren’t expecting to be knocked in the head by a musical. At least here with Last Dance, they’re getting what they paid for here in a zany, loopy Tom Hardy Venom movie.
Reviews are pretty bad for Venom: The Last Dance at 36% on Rotten Tomatoes — but they’re not the worst. That belongs to the first Venom at 30%. There was some improvement among film critics on part two at 57%. Both Venom and Venom: Let There Be Carnage earned B+ CinemaScores, which is healthy enough to make this also-ran anti-hero a tentpole.
Sony didn’t respond for comment on our industry projections tonight.
Venom: The Last Dance, directed by the franchise’s co-scribe Kelly Marcel in her behind the camera debut, is booked at 4,125 theaters.
Also opening this weekend is Focus Features Edward Berger directed Vatican thriller, Conclave, and A24’s We Live in Time, which is going super wide at 2,000 theaters in its third frame.