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In the wake of world premiering in Cannes to lackluster film reviews at 50% Rotten, Disney/Lucasfilm’s Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny is currently looking at a $60M+ domestic opening.
The movie opens on June 30 heading into what is conceivably a five-day play period given that Independence Day falls on a Tuesday.
Dial of Destiny‘s 3-day is down from the $100.1M 3-day of the last movie, 2008’s Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull — and this latest sequel reps the finale for the entire franchise. Crystal Skull opened on a Thursday over a Memorial Day weekend earning in total over five days, $151.9M. Logan filmmaker James Mangold took over helming the finale from franchise architect Steven Spielberg. Currently, Dial of Destiny is tracking significantly with older guys over younger, which has many comping he pic to the Daniel Craig 007 finale, No Time to Die ($55.2M) and 2018’s Mission: Impossible – Fallout ($61.2M).
Some are saying a $70M start for Dial of Destiny — that’s quite a stretch. Realize that Lionsgate’s John Wick: Chapter 4 opened to $73.8M with double the tracking metrics that Dial of Destiny is showing here.
Disney will need to pick up the slack in the coming weeks in their marketing to get more interest from younger guys, their distraction now being Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse in theaters and the upcoming Warner Bros DC The Flash on June 16. However, that hard word of mouth out of Cannes is quite the hurdle. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, which wasn’t beloved by many, settled at 77% certified fresh and a B CinemaScore versus the previous 1989 installment, Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade, which earned 84% certified fresh from critics and a solid A CinemaScore.
With Dial of Destiny at a $60M 3-day, that’s easily the second-best start for the Indiana Jones franchise. In the box office era, Last Crusade opened to $29.3M 3-day ($46.9M over extended Memorial Day weekend) at 2,327 theaters. 1984’s Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom bowed to $25.3M 3-day ($42.2M extended Memorial Day weekend) at 1,687 theaters. 1981’s Raiders of the Lost Ark‘s gross trajectory harkens back to the way blockbusters were made over a year: The pic opened to $8.3M at 1,078 theaters and by January 1982 earned $179.6M with an initial cume of $212.2M, lifetime gross of $248.1M.