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In a week when distributors and exhibitors are reconvening for their annual Las Vegas meet-up, CinemaCon, and celebrating the post-pandemic resurge of the box office, the motion picture industry is bracing for a potential WGA strike.
With production and deal-making slowing down, especially with 98% of WGA West and WGA East authorizing a strike if a fair new film/TV deal isn’t met by the May 1 deadline, how could that possibly dent the box office boom? Gower Analytics projects that this year alone is set to make an estimated $32 billion worldwide (+24% from last year) and $9 billion stateside (+200%).
Just as a majority of exhibitors are getting back on their feet financially after Covid’s great shutdown of 2020-21, studio sources outlined a worst-case scenario to Deadline should the WGA strike span more than four months.
In short, the theatrical release calendar would see several date changes for pics, as soon as Q4 this year. While the 2024 theatrical release calendar remains roughly intact in its first six months with completed movies coming down the pipeline, beyond that gets squishy. And it’s in this scenario that studios might need to pull from Q4 2023. Such aftermath from a possible strike isn’t as dramatic as TV production which will feel one more immediately. Realize, the longest WGA strike on record was 1988 (March 7-Aug 7) lasting 153 days, followed by the 1960 strike at 146 days (Jan. 16-June 10, 1960) and then the 2007-08 strike (Nov. 5, 2007- Feb. 17, 2008) at 100 days.
There’s another wrinkle: With SAG-AFTRA’s contract expiring on June 30, should that union strike it would prevent actors from doing any publicity on their feature or TV projects (they’ll meet with the AMPTP on June 7).
How does that jolt summer’s latter tentpoles, i.e. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning – Part One (July 14), Oppenheimer and Barbie (July 21), Haunted Mansion (July 28) among others? The good news for exhibition is that tentpole release dates are prized launch pads for movie studios, so they’re not apt to easily give them up. Hence, no big title moves are expected this summer. Still, studio and distribution marketing chiefs remain in a wait-and-see mode. It’s the smaller movies which are publicity dependent that are prime to pivot should SAG-AFTRA strike. This past weekend SAG-AFTRA’s National Board voted unanimously to approve a resolution “strongly in support” of the WGA in their ongoing talks with the AMPTP for a new film/TV contract.
Exhibition’s Covid shutdown forced a lose-lose situation for both studios and circuits. With most major box office capitals like LA and NY closed by health officials, studios continually pushed their tentpoles, read Black Widow, F9, No Time to Die, Venom: Let There Be Carnage, Minions: Rise of Gru, Jurassic World, Dominion, The Marvels and Creed III deeper and deeper into the 2021-2023 calendar. It was a situation that many circuits are still feeling the sting from, Cineworld and its sister U.S. chain trying to emerge from bankruptcy.
Warner Bros.’ Tenet provided hope to get whatever remaining theaters opened during August 2020, however, the pic’s lackluster performance ($58.5M domestic), proved that LA and NYC were vital for studios to make bank on a high-priced pic. When No Time to Die moved off of Thanksgiving 2020, causing other movies to shift, Cineworld Boss Mooky Greidinger shut down the nation’s No. 2 chain, Regal, in response to the lack of tentpoles on the calendar. Domestic Box Office fell off a cliff due to exhibition’s closure and studios delay of big titles, dropping 81% between 2019 ($11.4 billion) and 2020 ($2.2 billion) with a gradual rebuild in 2021 ($4.5 billion, +105%).
But, really, could a strike create as much pain to theatrical release schedule as the pandemic did? It’s not out of the question per sources should a WGA strike last four to six months-plus. The schedule could get further exacerbated should the DGA opt to strike for a lengthy period of time, that guild’s contract also expiring on June 30 with bargaining scheduled for May 10. Note the DGA went on strike only once, that being in 1987 when the DGA West stopped work for 15 minutes and DGA East halting for three hours and 15 minutes. While the pandemic forced studios to sell off big titles to streaming (i.e. Paramount with Coming 2 America and Skydance’s The Tomorrow War to Amazon Prime, MRC’s The Lovebirds to Netflix), it’s conceivable that we could see a reverse trend now that Covid fears have eased among those attending cinemas, read, in a strike laden marketplace, studios could take a movie intended for streaming and move it onto the theatrical schedule to fill any gaps.
It’s been reported how streamers could hold firm in talks for a few months given their back supply of product, not to mention it’s an opportunity to slash bloated spending, shape up their cash flow and kill bad deals. Motion Picture studios also stand to save several millions by stopping production for an earnings quarter. However, a delay in the feature distribution pipeline isn’t good for business either. Not to mention, a delay in production could potentially cause another post-production logjam, which was an aftermath of movies’ postponements during the pandemic. That left the late August-October 2022 box office and early winter this year a dry bed for product. In fact, we’re still waiting on movies delayed by the pandemic to hit theaters, i.e. Warner Bros/DC’s The Flash which will get its first screening here at CinemaCon on Tuesday night and Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom on Dec. 20.
During the 100-day WGA strike of 2007-08, several blockbusters stuck to their release dates during that period, again release dates being a valuable commodity, i.e. Will Smith title I Am Legend ($77.2M opening, a record than for an original movie’s start, $256.3M domestic), Alvin and the Chipmunks ($44.3M, $217.3M), National Treasure: Book of Secrets ($44.7M, $219.9M) while 2008 rang in the JJ Abrams’ produced Cloverfield ($40M) and Katherine Heigl romantic comedy, 27 Dresses ($23M opening $76.8M). 2008 saw enormous tentpoles hitting their key dates, i.e. Marvel Studio’s Iron Man (May 2) Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (May 22) and The Dark Knight (July 18).
Greatly impacted then were tentpoles intended for 2009 which were racing toward a March 1, 2008 production start for several studios. The 2007-08 strike prompted studios to scrap either pricey or half-baked projects. One of the more prolific features to be scrapped was a George Miller-directed version of Warner Bros/DC’s Justice League with Adam Brody as The Flash and then fresh face actors, Armie Hammer Jr. as Batman, and Megan Gale as Wonder Woman. Even though Australian tax breaks were a hurdle at the time, Warner wanted a polish on the Kieran and Michele Mulroney penned screenplay, which wasn’t possible due to the strike. The studio let the actors’ options expire.
One upcoming feature production that is safeguarding itself from a lengthy WGA Strike is James Gunn’ Superman: Legacy which is planning an early 2024 start for a July 11, 2025 theatrical release. That movie will serve as the start of Gunn and fellow DC-co Boss Peter Safran’s “Gods and Monsters” universe for the comic book label. Gunn showed off a cover the screenplay on social media and announced the start of pre-production earlier this week with “costumes, production design, and more now up and running”. Safran is expected to take the stage during Warner Bros. CinemaCon presentation on Tuesday while Gunn, who is on a world tour for Disney/Marvel Studios’ Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, will show up via video.
Another delayed tentpole from the 2007-08 strike was the Ron Howard directed- Akika Goldsman-David Koepp adapted take of Dan Brown’s Angels & Demons; that pic’s release date pushed from Christmas 2008 to May 15, 2009. Michael Mann’s Edwin A. Salt starring Tom Cruise off a Kurt Wimmer script morphed into the spy action title Salt starring Angelina Jolie and directed by Phillip Noyce. The movie finally surfaced in July 2010. Both were huge hits for Sony grossing respectively $486M and $293M around the world.
However, haste makes waste, and when studios rush key projects into production due to the strike, bad apples result. Such was the case due to the 2007-2008 strike for the Rob Marshall musical Nine ($54M WW, $80M cost) and the Will Ferrell remake of the 1970s TV series Land of the Lost ($68.8M WW, $100M cost), both of which were critical and financial duds. Though there wasn’t a strike in 2001, studios’ anticipation of one led to a slew of undercooked titles including The Truth About Charlie, Reign of Fire and Dark Blue.
“We did not have any discussions in our guild meetings about the labor issue,” outgoing National Association of Theatre Owners President and CEO John Fithian recently told Deadline in an exit interview, looking to but exhibition partners at ease.
“We’re hopeful, optimistic that quick solutions that are fair to all parties are achieved,” Fithian added.
Even though feature writers have presented their wants in the WGA’s pattern of demands, many motion picture execs believe the latest round of talks boil down to what’s vital for streaming and TV scribes. However, following a rough pandemic, the rebounding theatrical business could be impacted once again.
Exclaimed one optimistic distribution executive, “The hope is that cooler heads prevail.”
Jill Goldsmith contributed to this report