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Whether or not Lionsgate’s John Wick spinoff Ballerina clears or falls under $30M this weekend in U.S./Canada, consider the win in favor of exhibition, which will have that much more money in the marketplace.
The Ana de Armas action movie from director Len Wiseman also is bowing in 82 countries in what’s expected to be another $30M, for a global take around $60M. That offshore cash would be on par with the start of John Wick: Chapter 3 in 2019. Lionsgate is self-distributing in the UK and Latin America.
Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures/Courtesy Everett Collection
Largely funded from foreign sales, the $80M-$90M movie, which was delayed by a year for additional shooting (don’t say reshoots — it’s additional shooting, OK?) is expected to rank second during the first weekend of June. Disney’s Lilo & Stitch will threepeat at No. 1 with $35M, -43%. Flying past $300M this week, it still is the second-highest-grossing movie at the domestic box office YTD behind Warner Bros/Legendary’s A Minecraft Movie ($423.1M).
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Ballerina stars Armas as Eve Macarro, an orphan who is trained by the Ruska Roma, the Russian assassin school/ballet academy front, whose leader The Director (Anjelica Huston) also schooled John Wick (Keanu Reeves). As Eve becomes a gun for hire, she’s ultimately hellbent to avenge the death of her father, the guy slain by The Chancellor (Gabriel Byrne). There’s a slew of cameos from the John Wick gang along the way including Winston (Ian McShane) and Charon (the late Lance Reddick), the concierge at the Continental Hotel in New York, as well as Wick himself.
Spinoffs rarely put up similar or better numbers than an original franchise’s installments; 2023’s John Wick: Chapter 4 the best bow in series at $73.8M. Sources advise not to comp Ballerina to any John Wick movies (this despite the fact that Reeves is in the marketing), rather the best comps are solo female action movies, i.e. Alita: Battle Angel ($28.5M in 2019), Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga ($26.3M, 2024) and Madame Web ($15.3M, 2024).
We hear that Fandango presales for Ballerina are 32% ahead of Madame Web, but pacing 50% behind Furiosa. While we needed product in Q1 and Q2 of this year, Ballerina is opening at this point in time as Lionsgate had access to Reeves for the press tour (he introduced the movie Tuesday night at the Hollywood premiere with John Wick architect Chad Stahelski, who is a producer on the new film). One tracking service shows that first choice is best with men over 25, yet 40% behind Furiosa in the same demo.
Lionsgate has a master plan, as unveiled at CinemaCon, to build out the John Wick franchise even more than it already is (an animated prequel, a Donnie Yen-directed movie about blind assassin Caine), with Ballerina being another cog in the wheel. There’s already been the Peacock series The Continental.
Critics generally love John Wick movies, with the pics ranging from 86% certified fresh on Rotten Tomatoes to Chapter 4‘s franchise high of 94% certified fresh.
There are fan screenings today starting at 7 p.m. for the R-rated Ballerina, with more previews starting at 6 p.m. Thursday.
What else is going on this weekend?
With a continued grip on Imax, Paramount’s Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning is eyeing around $15M in weekend 3, -45%. The running cume stands at $129.3M.
Sony’s second weekend of Karate Kid: Legends is eyeing around $10M, -51%. The movie through Tuesday counts $24.1M.
Focus Features is expanding Wes Anderson’s The Phoenician Scheme from six theaters to 1,600 for a 3-day around $7M. Last weekend, the Cannes-debuting movie posted the best opening theater average of the year with $93,4K. By comparison, Asteroid City did $9M two Junes ago in its wide break second weekend on 1,675 theaters. No Rotten Tomatoes audience score yet.
IFC/Shudder
IFC has the Australian shark movie Dangerous Animals, which it world premiered in Directors’ Fortnight at Cannes to 88% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes with film reviewers. The Sean Byrne-directed final-girl movie starring Jai Courtney and Yellowstone’sHassie Harrison follows a shark tour guide who feeds his passengers to the sharks. Booked at 1,600 theaters, expect a start in low-single-digit range. IFC’s Clown in the Cornfield opened to $3.6M and currently counts $7.2M.
Neon’s acquisition The Life of Chuck, which won the People’s Choice Award at TIFF, is going out in 16 theaters and eight markets. From writer-director Mike Flanagan and based on the short story by Stephen King, the pic follows three chapters in thelifeofan ordinary man named Charles Krantz, played by Tom Hiddleston. Rotten Tomatoes reviews stand at 88% fresh.